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Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

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The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

April 2016

Good news, but need for caution: Inside the February 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues to be in positive budget territory, with a $900 million positive balance for FY 2016-17, and a $1.2 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These positive projected balances provide opportunities for the state to invest strategically so that more Minnesotans can access ladders into the middle class. However, lawmakers should also avoid making large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put Minnesota’s economic future at risk.

December 2015

Future economic strength depends on workforce: Inside the November 2015 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues to be in positive budget territory, with a $1.2 billion positive balance for FY 2016-17. The state also has a projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These positive balances provide opportunity for the state to invest in its workforce to ensure a strong economic future for Minnesota.

March 2015

State strides into positive budget territory: Inside the February 2015 Economic Forecast

Minnesota's projected budget balance of $1.9 billion for FY 2016-17 is due to stronger economic growth, higher than expected revenues, and lower anticipated expenditures. Even as the state's economy has improved, many Minnesotans still struggle to make ends meet. State investments, such as affordable child care, would enable more Minnesotans to attain economic security.

December 2014

Minnesota is on the right track: Inside the November 2014 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues to be in positive budget territory, with a $556 million positive balance for FY 2014-15. The state also has a projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2016-17 budget cycle. These positive balances provide opportunity for the state to continue on its recent path of smart investments that promote broader economic security and make our tax system fairer.

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

August 10, 2020

Minnesota expecting continued revenue shortfalls; time for strong federal action

July brought us more sobering news about the ongoing damage that COVID-19 is expected to have on the economy, and by extension the state’s budget.

August 03, 2020

New data confirm states need more federal Medicaid support

Data shows climbing numbers of Minnesotans needing some help to afford care while we’re also seeing massive state revenue shortfalls as a result of the pandemic’s economic disruption. This presents a serious mismatch of needs and resources. An increase to federal Medicaid funding is needed to make sure people can get the health care they need, when they need it.

July 14, 2020

July economic update shows state will need all the tools in the toolbox

The state's quarterly economic report shows that projections for the national economy have gotten even worse. While state revenues have come in a bit ahead of what was predicted in May, the state is still on track for a more than $2 billion budget shortfall for the current budget cycle.

May 05, 2020

May budget report reveals the need to support everyday folks

The May budget projection will guide the decisions that policymakers make in the remaining weeks of the legislative session, and the months beyond. They remind us of how many of our neighbors are struggling, and the importance of taking swift action to reduce the hardships that Minnesotans and their families are facing as a result of the pandemic, and to start building for the economic recovery.