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Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

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The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

January 2017

Uncertainty means caution necessary: Inside the November 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a projected $678 million positive balance for the remaining months of FY 2016-17, and a projected $1.4 billion positive balance for FY 2018-19. This brief takes a close look at the state's November forecast, which the governor will use as his starting point for setting the next biennial budget. Uncertainty, in both the national economy and with potential federal policy, should signal caution to Minnesota policymakers when considering budget and tax changes.

April 2016

Good news, but need for caution: Inside the February 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues to be in positive budget territory, with a $900 million positive balance for FY 2016-17, and a $1.2 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These positive projected balances provide opportunities for the state to invest strategically so that more Minnesotans can access ladders into the middle class. However, lawmakers should also avoid making large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put Minnesota’s economic future at risk.

December 2015

Future economic strength depends on workforce: Inside the November 2015 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues to be in positive budget territory, with a $1.2 billion positive balance for FY 2016-17. The state also has a projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These positive balances provide opportunity for the state to invest in its workforce to ensure a strong economic future for Minnesota.

March 2015

State strides into positive budget territory: Inside the February 2015 Economic Forecast

Minnesota's projected budget balance of $1.9 billion for FY 2016-17 is due to stronger economic growth, higher than expected revenues, and lower anticipated expenditures. Even as the state's economy has improved, many Minnesotans still struggle to make ends meet. State investments, such as affordable child care, would enable more Minnesotans to attain economic security.

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

October 26, 2022

What are the state budget implications of a potential national recession?

While the state of Minnesota’s revenues have continued to come in better than expected, more serious economic challenges are expected ahead, including a recession starting this fall.

July 14, 2022

State revenues are strong, but national economy is weakening

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture for FY 2022 remains solid, but the national economic recovery is expected to be...

April 15, 2022

Minnesota April Economic Update includes first estimates of impact of Russia invasion of Ukraine

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture to date is still solid, but the national economic recovery is now expected to...

March 01, 2022

New budget forecast continues to show resources available to build an equitable recovery

The State of Minnesota is expected to see unprecedented levels of resources, including a strong boost in the short-term ...