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Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

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The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

February 2020

Minnesota should invest in the future: Inside the November 2019 Economic Forecast

The November 2019 Economic Forecast brought some positive news for now, but predicts a more challenging budget situation in the future. Minnesota is in positive budget territory with a $1.3 billion balance projected for the current two-year budget cycle, FY 2020-21. However, that good news is short-lived. Faced with a short-term surplus, policymakers have an opportunity to make some one-time investments.

February 2018

Minnesota needs to prepare for future: Inside the November 2017 Economic Forecast

The November Economic Forecast projects a $188 million deficit for FY 2018-19 and a $586 million deficit for FY 2020-21. This brief examines the forecast’s economic data that show Minnesota’s economy is still doing fairly well, and that the national economy is expected to grow, although at a slower rate than previously projected. These budgetary projections do not include the impact of likely federal tax and budget changes; state policymakers should ensure Minnesota is fully prepared to navigate the uncharted landscape ahead.

February 2017

Caution is key: Inside the February 2017 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues its positive budget trend, with a $743 million positive balance for the rest of FY 2016-17 and a $1.7 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These projected balances provide opportunities for the state to make smart investments to bring the economic recovery to every part of the state. However, an uncertain federal budget and tax landscape calls for caution. Minnesota lawmakers should avoid large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put our economic future on shaky ground.

January 2017

Uncertainty means caution necessary: Inside the November 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a projected $678 million positive balance for the remaining months of FY 2016-17, and a projected $1.4 billion positive balance for FY 2018-19. This brief takes a close look at the state's November forecast, which the governor will use as his starting point for setting the next biennial budget. Uncertainty, in both the national economy and with potential federal policy, should signal caution to Minnesota policymakers when considering budget and tax changes.

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

January 14, 2022

Newest state revenue update affirms substantial resources are available to build an equitable recovery

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture continues to improve, but the national economic recovery is expected to be a li...

December 07, 2021

Historic state budget forecast presents historic opportunity

The forecast projects a $7.7 billion general fund surplus for the current FY 2022-23 budget cycle, and a $6.0 billion structural balance for the upcoming FY 2024-25 budget cycle. These projections represent a historic opportunity to make transformational changes to build a more equitable recovery.

November 29, 2021

Potential state surplus could trigger reserve and tax changes

A surplus in the November forecast could trigger two actions: a change in the budget reserve, and a change in when retailers and vendors submit sales tax payments to the state.

October 26, 2021

Latest data point to opportunity – and need – to build a stronger recovery

Even as the state's revenues came in higher, the national economic outlook has weakened due to the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 and supply chain disruptions. Read our take-aways and how policymakers should respond.