Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

February 2018

Minnesota needs to prepare for future: Inside the November 2017 Economic Forecast

The November Economic Forecast projects a $188 million deficit for FY 2018-19 and a $586 million deficit for FY 2020-21. This brief examines the forecast’s economic data that show Minnesota’s economy is still doing fairly well, and that the national economy is expected to grow, although at a slower rate than previously projected. These budgetary projections do not include the impact of likely federal tax and budget changes; state policymakers should ensure Minnesota is fully prepared to navigate the uncharted landscape ahead.

February 2017

Caution is key: Inside the February 2017 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues its positive budget trend, with a $743 million positive balance for the rest of FY 2016-17 and a $1.7 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These projected balances provide opportunities for the state to make smart investments to bring the economic recovery to every part of the state. However, an uncertain federal budget and tax landscape calls for caution. Minnesota lawmakers should avoid large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put our economic future on shaky ground.

January 2017

Uncertainty means caution necessary: Inside the November 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a projected $678 million positive balance for the remaining months of FY 2016-17, and a projected $1.4 billion positive balance for FY 2018-19. This brief takes a close look at the state's November forecast, which the governor will use as his starting point for setting the next biennial budget. Uncertainty, in both the national economy and with potential federal policy, should signal caution to Minnesota policymakers when considering budget and tax changes.

April 2016

Good news, but need for caution: Inside the February 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues to be in positive budget territory, with a $900 million positive balance for FY 2016-17, and a $1.2 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These positive projected balances provide opportunities for the state to invest strategically so that more Minnesotans can access ladders into the middle class. However, lawmakers should also avoid making large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put Minnesota’s economic future at risk.

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Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

July 12, 2019

Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

Research

Minnesota needs to prepare for future: Inside the November 2017 Economic Forecast

Caution is key: Inside the February 2017 Economic Forecast

Uncertainty means caution necessary: Inside the November 2016 Economic Forecast

Good news, but need for caution: Inside the February 2016 Economic Forecast

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

Minnesota's July Economic Update shows higher revenues, economic growth for now

Raiding the state's budget reserve today could hurt everyday Minnesotans tomorrow

Minnesota’s April Economic Update shows small improvements

Minnesota’s February budget forecast reinforces the need for resources to fund the investments Minnesotans count on

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