Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

February 2020

Minnesota should invest in the future: Inside the November 2019 Economic Forecast

The November 2019 Economic Forecast brought some positive news for now, but predicts a more challenging budget situation in the future. Minnesota is in positive budget territory with a $1.3 billion balance projected for the current two-year budget cycle, FY 2020-21. However, that good news is short-lived. Faced with a short-term surplus, policymakers have an opportunity to make some one-time investments.

February 2018

Minnesota needs to prepare for future: Inside the November 2017 Economic Forecast

The November Economic Forecast projects a $188 million deficit for FY 2018-19 and a $586 million deficit for FY 2020-21. This brief examines the forecast’s economic data that show Minnesota’s economy is still doing fairly well, and that the national economy is expected to grow, although at a slower rate than previously projected. These budgetary projections do not include the impact of likely federal tax and budget changes; state policymakers should ensure Minnesota is fully prepared to navigate the uncharted landscape ahead.

February 2017

Caution is key: Inside the February 2017 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues its positive budget trend, with a $743 million positive balance for the rest of FY 2016-17 and a $1.7 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These projected balances provide opportunities for the state to make smart investments to bring the economic recovery to every part of the state. However, an uncertain federal budget and tax landscape calls for caution. Minnesota lawmakers should avoid large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put our economic future on shaky ground.

January 2017

Uncertainty means caution necessary: Inside the November 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a projected $678 million positive balance for the remaining months of FY 2016-17, and a projected $1.4 billion positive balance for FY 2018-19. This brief takes a close look at the state's November forecast, which the governor will use as his starting point for setting the next biennial budget. Uncertainty, in both the national economy and with potential federal policy, should signal caution to Minnesota policymakers when considering budget and tax changes.

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Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

February 27, 2020

Positive budget surplus is coupled with caution

Minnesota's positive budget balance coupled with continued modest economic growth give us short-term good news, however it also gives reasons for caution, with only a small structural balance in the next budget cycle before accounting for inflation and slowing economic growth in the future.

January 27, 2020

January economic outlook is brighter

January's Economic Update brought us good short-term news: revenues are up, and the economy is growing at a good pace for now. However, with slower economic growth and potential for a recession on the horizon, policymakers should prioritize a strong budget reserve to be able to meet Minnesotans' needs in future tough times.

December 05, 2019

Minnesota’s November budget forecast offers some near-term good news, while pointing to the need for sustained revenues for investments

Minnesota’s budget reserve is strengthened and the state’s budget outlook gives us short-term good news, according to ...

November 07, 2019

Minnesota's budget reserve is strong, let's keep it strong

Every year, Minnesota Management and Budget gives Minnesotans an estimate of what the state needs in its "rainy day" fu...

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