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Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

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The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

February 2020

Minnesota should invest in the future: Inside the November 2019 Economic Forecast

The November 2019 Economic Forecast brought some positive news for now, but predicts a more challenging budget situation in the future. Minnesota is in positive budget territory with a $1.3 billion balance projected for the current two-year budget cycle, FY 2020-21. However, that good news is short-lived. Faced with a short-term surplus, policymakers have an opportunity to make some one-time investments.

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February 2018

Minnesota needs to prepare for future: Inside the November 2017 Economic Forecast

The November Economic Forecast projects a $188 million deficit for FY 2018-19 and a $586 million deficit for FY 2020-21. This brief examines the forecast’s economic data that show Minnesota’s economy is still doing fairly well, and that the national economy is expected to grow, although at a slower rate than previously projected. These budgetary projections do not include the impact of likely federal tax and budget changes; state policymakers should ensure Minnesota is fully prepared to navigate the uncharted landscape ahead.

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February 2017

Caution is key: Inside the February 2017 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues its positive budget trend, with a $743 million positive balance for the rest of FY 2016-17 and a $1.7 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These projected balances provide opportunities for the state to make smart investments to bring the economic recovery to every part of the state. However, an uncertain federal budget and tax landscape calls for caution. Minnesota lawmakers should avoid large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put our economic future on shaky ground.

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January 2017

Uncertainty means caution necessary: Inside the November 2016 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a projected $678 million positive balance for the remaining months of FY 2016-17, and a projected $1.4 billion positive balance for FY 2018-19. This brief takes a close look at the state's November forecast, which the governor will use as his starting point for setting the next biennial budget. Uncertainty, in both the national economy and with potential federal policy, should signal caution to Minnesota policymakers when considering budget and tax changes.

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Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

October 15, 2020

Economic update shows COVID-19’s impact, need for federal action

COVID-19 is still a major threat to the country’s health, economy, and public services we all count on. The state of Min...

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October 06, 2020

Budget reserve is one tool to put people first during tough times

Every year, Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) gives Minnesotans an estimate of what the state needs in its "rainy...

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October 01, 2020

State budget process kicks off amid unusual uncertainty

Fresh pencils for back to school, shorter days, bright red maples – these are a few of the classic harbingers of fall....

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August 10, 2020

Minnesota expecting continued revenue shortfalls; time for strong federal action

July brought us more sobering news about the ongoing damage that COVID-19 is expected to have on the economy, and by extension the state’s budget.

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