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Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

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The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

January 2013

Minnesota should get on a sustainable track: A look at the November 2012 Economic Forecast

Even though the economy is improving, Minnesota faces a $1.1 billion deficit in FY 2014-15 ($2.0 billion when inflation is included). Policymakers have an opportunity in the 2013 Legislative Session to end the cycle of budget deficits and quick fixes and get the state on a sustainable path.

March 2012

Surplus short-lived as deficit looms: The February 2012 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a $323 million surplus for the current budget cycle, the FY 2012-13 biennium. These funds will be used to refill the state's budget reserve and start to reverse the school funding shift. However, Minnesota faces a $1.1 billion shortfall in the FY 2014-15 budget cycle, which policymakers will need to address when they return to session in 2013.

December 2011

Surplus now, deficit later: A look at the November 2011 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has an $876 million surplus, but is facing a $1.3 billion deficit in the next budget cycle. How policymakers address these challenges will have a major effect on the state's economic future.

March 2011

Minnesota's forecast improves, but deficits continue: A look at the February 2011 Forecast

Minnesota's financial picture has improved slightly since November, with the state's budget deficit falling from $6.2 billion to $5.0 billion for FY 2012-13. The state's economy, however, continues to improve at a slow pace and unemployment levels aren't expected to improve until 2014.

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

December 18, 2023

Minnesota’s November Budget Forecast is a mixed bag

The state budget forecast predicts an $82 million positive balance at the end of the four years covered by the forecast. One-time surplus dollars generated in the past continue to be an important funding source throughout the four-year budget window. In this blog, we share our high-level takes on the forecast, which gives policymakers, advocates, and the public an initial look at the state’s budget landscape as we get closer to the upcoming legislative session.

November 27, 2023

Recent information points to stronger state budget picture

Recent budget reports suggest that Minnesota will likely project a larger budget surplus when the next legislative session kicks off. This in part reflects the fact that the national economy has performed more strongly this year than was previously anticipated. In October, Minnesota Management and Budget determined that the prior FY 2022-23 final general fund balance was $820 million higher than end-of-session estimates.

July 18, 2023

July economic update shows state revenues on track, mixed national economic picture

The State of Minnesota ended the most recent fiscal year on a positive revenue note, but the latest update shows the relatively strong national economic outlook is expected to weaken in coming years.

April 12, 2023

Latest economic report shows state revenues on track with projected large surpluses

Both the state of Minnesota’s revenues and the national economic forecast are slightly improved compared to the February...