Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

January 2013

Minnesota should get on a sustainable track: A look at the November 2012 Economic Forecast

Even though the economy is improving, Minnesota faces a $1.1 billion deficit in FY 2014-15 ($2.0 billion when inflation is included). Policymakers have an opportunity in the 2013 Legislative Session to end the cycle of budget deficits and quick fixes and get the state on a sustainable path.

March 2012

Surplus short-lived as deficit looms: The February 2012 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a $323 million surplus for the current budget cycle, the FY 2012-13 biennium. These funds will be used to refill the state's budget reserve and start to reverse the school funding shift. However, Minnesota faces a $1.1 billion shortfall in the FY 2014-15 budget cycle, which policymakers will need to address when they return to session in 2013.

December 2011

Surplus now, deficit later: A look at the November 2011 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has an $876 million surplus, but is facing a $1.3 billion deficit in the next budget cycle. How policymakers address these challenges will have a major effect on the state's economic future.

March 2011

Minnesota's forecast improves, but deficits continue: A look at the February 2011 Forecast

Minnesota's financial picture has improved slightly since November, with the state's budget deficit falling from $6.2 billion to $5.0 billion for FY 2012-13. The state's economy, however, continues to improve at a slow pace and unemployment levels aren't expected to improve until 2014.

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Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

February 27, 2023

State's February budget forecast confirms opportunity to make transformational investments

The State of Minnesota is projected to have budget surpluses over the next four years, according to the February 2023...

February 13, 2023

January economic update affirms state has resources to invest in everyday Minnesotans

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture continues to improve, and the national economic recovery is expected to be a li...

December 15, 2022

Another historic surplus yields opportunity for transformational investments

The State of Minnesota is projected to have dramatically more resources than previously expected, according to the November 2022 Budget and Economic Forecast released last week. These resources present an historic opportunity to make transformational changes to build a more equitable recovery in which all Minnesotans are healthy, safe, and economically secure.

October 26, 2022

What are the state budget implications of a potential national recession?

While the state of Minnesota’s revenues have continued to come in better than expected, more serious economic challenges are expected ahead, including a recession starting this fall.

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