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Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

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The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

March 2012

Surplus short-lived as deficit looms: The February 2012 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has a $323 million surplus for the current budget cycle, the FY 2012-13 biennium. These funds will be used to refill the state's budget reserve and start to reverse the school funding shift. However, Minnesota faces a $1.1 billion shortfall in the FY 2014-15 budget cycle, which policymakers will need to address when they return to session in 2013.

December 2011

Surplus now, deficit later: A look at the November 2011 Economic Forecast

Minnesota has an $876 million surplus, but is facing a $1.3 billion deficit in the next budget cycle. How policymakers address these challenges will have a major effect on the state's economic future.

March 2011

Minnesota's forecast improves, but deficits continue: A look at the February 2011 Forecast

Minnesota's financial picture has improved slightly since November, with the state's budget deficit falling from $6.2 billion to $5.0 billion for FY 2012-13. The state's economy, however, continues to improve at a slow pace and unemployment levels aren't expected to improve until 2014.

January 2011

Minnesota faces slow recovery and a big deficit: A look at the November 2010 Forecast

The state’s latest economic forecast projects a deficit of $6.2 billion for the upcoming FY 2012-13 biennium, or 16 percent of the general fund budget. The prolonged economic slowdown and heavy reliance on short-term budget solutions have both contributed to the state's current budget troubles. The forecast continues to project slow economic growth for the state.

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

April 15, 2022

Minnesota April Economic Update includes first estimates of impact of Russia invasion of Ukraine

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture to date is still solid, but the national economic recovery is now expected to...

March 01, 2022

New budget forecast continues to show resources available to build an equitable recovery

The State of Minnesota is expected to see unprecedented levels of resources, including a strong boost in the short-term ...

January 14, 2022

Newest state revenue update affirms substantial resources are available to build an equitable recovery

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture continues to improve, but the national economic recovery is expected to be a li...

December 07, 2021

Historic state budget forecast presents historic opportunity

The forecast projects a $7.7 billion general fund surplus for the current FY 2022-23 budget cycle, and a $6.0 billion structural balance for the upcoming FY 2024-25 budget cycle. These projections represent a historic opportunity to make transformational changes to build a more equitable recovery.